The Risks of Nuclear Facility Incidents

In this report, we provide an overview of the security environment confronting countries with sensitive nuclear facilities. First, we detail deliberate attacks on nuclear facilities and the vulnerabilities that expose these facilities to internal and external threats. Then, we review terrorist violence cross-nationally and over time, focusing specifically on attacks against critical infrastructure, such as chemical plants, oil pipelines, and ports. We find that infrastructure remains an atypical target of extremist groups in most countries. But, we also observe significant terrorist violence in a small subset of countries, some of which possess sensitive nuclear materials, including Pakistan, Nigeria, India, and Russia. In South Asia, in particular, we see substantial terrorism proximate to sensitive nuclear facilities. Next, we evaluate the risk of an accident at a nuclear facility before concluding with key takeaways and policy recommendations.