This report presents the results of statistical models estimating scrappage rates and survival probabilities as a function of vehicle age for U.S. light-duty vehicles. Using vehicle counts by type and model year from 2002 to 2020, the analysis estimates scrappage functions for the 2003–2020 period. Separate models were developed for three vehicle categories: passenger cars, SUVs and vans, and pickup trucks, allowing researchers to examine changes in scrappage and survival rates over time. Modified logistic functions provided an excellent fit to the data (R² = 0.99), with statistically significant trends and fixed effects identified for each vehicle type. Nonlinear least squares estimation showed that vehicle life expectancies increased throughout the study period by approximately 2–3 years for passenger cars, 3–4 years for SUVs and vans, and 5–6 years for pickup trucks. By 2020, the median expected lifespan reached approximately 17 years for passenger cars, 20 years for SUVs and vans, and 25 years for pickup trucks.
