With midterms approaching, one question matters more than ever: do the polls actually reflect how Americans feel? When polling numbers and public sentiment seem unaligned, how much can we trust the polls?
To kick off season nine of You Might Be Right, former Tennessee Governors Phil Bredesen and Bill Haslam explore that question with Kristen Soltis Anderson and Anna Greenberg.
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Anderson, founding partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research firm that brings data analytics and polling together, argues that one of polling’s biggest challenges is that it can overlook voters who are less likely to vote but may still turn out. She draws on her research to predict which demographic groups are likely to vote in the midterms and what issues matter most to them, offering insight into how both Republican and Democratic candidates can appeal to these voters.
Greenberg, senior partner at GQR, a progressive-leaning polling firm based in DC, brings a different perspective as a Democratic polling expert. She argues that polling can still be trusted despite recent incidents, stressing the importance of pollsters being transparent about their methods and fact-checking polls. Greenberg speculates that polling may increasingly use artificial intelligence in the future, potentially replacing traditional human surveying.
The governors say politics is at its best when candidates persuade independent voters rather than solely engage existing supporters, highlighting the importance of reaching voters who may otherwise be overlooked by polling practices.
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