How the 2024 Election Stacks Up Against the Past
In his first year at the University of Tennessee, Andy Busch, professor, and associate director of the Institute of American Civics at the Howard H. Baker Jr. School of Public Policy and Public Affairs (Baker School), has seen how important the 2024 election is for University of Tennessee, Knoxville students. Through debate watch parties, presentations, and in his classroom, Busch has engaged with students across campus, discussing how important this election is, how it differs from past elections, and what to pay attention to as November 5 approaches.
What is making this election so unusual?
Busch said that there are many things that have made this election unusual, primary of which is how the Democratic nominee came forward. Vice President Kamala Harris had a unique path to candidacy as she did not rise through a competitive convention nor earned top billing through the traditional primary process. The fact that a sitting president, who is eligible to run for re-election has opted not to is yet another anomaly of the 2024 election.
Busch said things have been different on the other side as well. “For the Republicans, they have a nominee that, if elected, would be the oldest person to become president,” he said. “It’s the first time a presidential candidate has been indicted and convicted of a crime and has had not one but two assassination attempts.” He notes that both parties have had some turmoil within themselves over policies related to the unrest in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.
Despite the unusual circumstances surrounding the candidates, Busch said each campaign is approaching the election with the usual approach — appealing to and depending on turning out their base as a path to victory. It is a tactic that Busch thinks both parties are making a mistake with. “There is a group of voters out there that is persuadable,” Busch said. “The great center of the American electorate, who is neither part of nor wants to be part of a base, is up for grabs.” He believes it is not just those in the center that could be persuaded. “We have an undetermined number of Republicans who don’t like former President Donald Trump and are willing to even vote on the other side of the ticket if the Democrats’ messaging can reach them.”
What to look for in the final days of the election.
According to Busch, swing states are an interesting factor in most elections, but how each campaign has handled them this year is even more interesting. “They focus on swing states, putting in the time and money, because those states are in play, they could go blue or red,” Busch said. “But the actual campaigning inside those states have focused on turning out their base more than attracting new voters.” He said the Democratic ticket has made more efforts to appeal to voters across the aisle down the stretch, but only time will tell if those tactics sway votes.
Busch will be watching Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. He notes the polls are showing a tight race in each one. “If most of those states seem headed in the same direction, that is likely the way the election will break,” he said.
Another group of states to watch are states presumed to be going red, or blue based on their history, like Tennessee and California. Candidates visit them less, if at all. He still recommends keeping an eye on those states, though. There is always an outside chance that they might be going in a different direction, and that could be a big signal of a swing on election night.
“If numbers in Virginia or Minnesota start leaning towards former President Trump, then the whole election is going in that direction,” Busch said. “If Texas or Florida move towards Vice President Harris, then so will the general election.”
Voter groups are another thing to watch, especially independent voters. “This is a 50/50 country when it comes to partisan breakdown,” Busch explained. “So those independents really hold the balance.” In 2016, Trump won independents by approximately 4% and won the election; in 2020, he lost them by 13% and, in turn, lost the election. Where that voter group is leaning on November 5 is another signal of where the results will land. Busch notes that other voting groups should be kept an eye on, including urban, rural, veterans, and minority groups. However, winning a voter group is not the only telling sign; the margins within the groups could tell us something. Parties count on their base voting groups, and the slightest shift within them can make a difference.
Is the 2024 election more important than past elections?
Busch has been teaching for 32 years. He has authored a book on each election since 1992 and is currently working on a book covering this election. He has also published books on the election of 1948 and 1980.
With this background, it is no surprise that Busch has been in demand for media interviews throughout the election season. He said the most frequent questions include how this election is different from past elections and who is going to win.
Busch said it is easier to get a historical perspective for any election by looking back and that it is hard to determine relevance without hindsight. “You are able to see some of the possibilities of that presidency,” Busch said. “What will define the presidency of who wins on November 5 is contingent on what happens in the next four years.” He notes in the 2000 election, the campaigning was focused on domestic issues. President George W. Bush was elected based on his domestic agenda, but because of the events of September 11, 2001, he is remembered as a national security president.
As unusual as this election campaign has been, Busch does see resemblances to the 1968 election. It was the last time a sitting president, who could be re-elected, dropped out in an election year, and the sitting vice president was given the nomination. As it was in that year, Vice President Harris is having to deal with the same dilemma Vice President Hubert Humphrey dealt with – establishing an identity that is separate from an unpopular sitting president while being a part of their administration. In 1968, the Lyndon Johnson administration was unpopular, mostly due to the Vietnam War. Humphrey struggled to distance himself as that administration’s vice president and remain loyal to the party.
“Harris faces this in general,” Busch said. “About two-thirds of Americans think America is on the wrong track and unsatisfied with the country,” Busch notes that in the last month, Harris has changed tactics, trying to distinguish herself from the Biden administration without sounding disloyal or opportunistic. He said it is something that her campaign has struggled with, especially since, at the beginning of 2020, Biden made it clear that this was the Biden-Harris Administration. The 1968 campaign was also marked with violence, much like this year with two assassination attempts on former President Trump. The assassinations of Robert F. Kennedy, then a primary candidate, and Martin Luther King Jr. had widespread impacts on the country and the election.
When asked how important this election is compared to others, Busch stated, “It’s definitely important, but it tends to be the habit of political parties to tell their voters that this is the most important election in their lifetime.” It is a sentiment he has heard at least a dozen times over his years of studying elections. He said it is best to take it with a grain of salt because some of the significance of the results will depend on what happens in the Congressional races.
There are plenty of reasons to see this as an important election, but Busch recommends that we lower the temperature a bit. The world will not end as a result of this election. He tells his students the day after each election. “If you are on the winning side, don’t get cocky. If you are on the losing side, don’t despair.”
Busch was featured on C-SPAN2 for their Historic Elections series, speaking on the 1980 election that led to Republican President Ronald Reagan’s landslide win over incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter. Watch the segment here.