Deep Decarbonization and Deep Uncertainty: What Are Climate Action Plans Missing?

Achieving near-zero greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 2050 presents a significant challenge for public policy. Transportation systems require energy to move people and goods, and currently rely on fossil carbon fuels for more than 90% of their energy needs, a trend that has persisted since at least the middle of the twentieth century (Davis et al., 2020; EIA, 2020). To reach the level of decarbonization needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change, a comprehensive transformation of transportation energy sources, technologies, and uses must be implemented urgently (IPCC, 2018; NRC, 2020). This transition must also occur alongside a broader transformation of the global energy system. For example, for electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to achieve their full emissions reduction potential, the entire lifecycle of energy production, resource extraction, vehicle manufacturing, and supporting infrastructure must also be decarbonized.