Between Allies and Enemies: Explaining the Volatility of the U.S.-Pakistan Relationship, 1947–2018

The relationship between the United States and Pakistan has experienced dramatic shifts since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, alternating between close strategic partnership and deep political distrust. This policy brief examines the historical factors that have shaped this volatility, arguing that the relationship has been driven primarily by changing national security priorities rather than enduring diplomatic alignment. From the Cold War to the Global War on Terror, U.S. engagement with Pakistan has intensified during periods when the country served key American strategic interests and declined when those interests diminished. At the same time, Pakistan’s foreign policy has been consistently influenced by concerns over national security, regional competition with India, internal political cohesion, and the pursuit of strategic depth in Afghanistan. The brief also explores the influential role of Pakistan’s military, the development of its nuclear weapons program, and the growing importance of China as an alternative strategic partner. Ultimately, the paper concludes that the U.S.-Pakistan relationship has remained transactional, with both nations cooperating when their interests converge and distancing themselves when their priorities diverge. Understanding these historical patterns provides important insight into the continuing challenges of U.S. policy in South Asia and the future of bilateral relations.