Valley Pathways Study Preliminary Findings Webinar
Building a Competitive, Clean Economy
Webinar Recording
The Valley Pathways Study team hosted a live webinar on February 29, 2024, on the Study’s Preliminary Findings.
About the Study
The Tennessee Valley Authority and University of Tennessee Baker School of Public Policy and Public Affairs launched the Valley Pathways Study in February 2023 to evaluate the existing environmental landscape and explore opportunities to reduce carbon emissions and create a competitive, sustainable economy. The study brought together 24 participants from multiple sectors, including transportation, agriculture, industry, municipalities, state agencies, academia, and others. Participants shared their perspectives and idea for how we can work together to achieve net-zero emissions for future generations.
Webinar Q & A
The following questions were submitted either during webinar registration or live during the webinar, but time did not allow for an answer to be given during the webinar. These questions have been organized by topic, and answers to these questions are provided below. Some questions have been edited slightly for clarity / spelling / grammar, but content has not been changed.
Carbon Sequestration
Q. May we consider recycling as a kind of “carbon sink” and how do we calculate for that? For reuse as well. AP42 emission factors have been developed for various air contaminant sources. May we develop such “sink” factors for the materials that are recycled and/or reused and repurposed?
A. Recycling is undoubtedly a GHG reduction measure — it avoids the emissions associated with incineration and decomposition of materials, and it avoids emissions associated with producing new materials. But we typically refer to carbon sinks to specifically mean things that store carbon in the long-term.
Q. Has native habitat restoration been evaluated about the sequestration of carbon emissions? A one-two punch of carbon sequestration and a boost to local biodiversity seems like a win/win: restoring native prairies with their proper flora and fauna, clearing out the understories of hardwood forests, or other assisted natural regeneration activities while maintaining a thorough data log of changes in the local ecosystem — including all flora and fauna therein — over time.
A. The study certainly evaluated the potential for natural and working lands to sequester carbon. However, the study focused primarily on actions to reduce societal GHG emissions and did not go quite to this level of depth. Such a study would be a terrific sector-specific follow-on.
Transportation
Q. What are the most immediate opportunities available to improve transportation efficiency?
A. Electric vehicles are actually very efficient Because they don’t have spark plugs, pistons, and drive shafts; they use about one-third of the total energy per mile compared to internal combustion engines.
Q. What are the most immediate opportunities to reduce transportation utilization?
A. The COVID-19 pandemic ushered in a new working era where people didn’t necessarily have to commute to an office five days a week. Nationwide, commuting represents between 30% and 40% of annual mileage, so remote or hybrid work schedules have the potential to really impact total demand — and thus emissions.
Q. According to your data, the transportation sector is the largest source of emissions in the region, comprising some 36% of emissions driven primarily by personal vehicles. Why is only lip service given to the concept of increased availability and use of public transportation? And no consideration is given to revamping cities to allow for increased walkability. Simply predicting a transition to 100% electric vehicle use is unrealistic.
A. Dramatic reductions in vehicle miles traveled — a result of potential investment in rail, pedestrian, bicycle, and other micro-mobility options — is a key feature of our “Community Resiliency” pathway and a component of the “Combined” scenario. One of our key findings is actually that these investments — without significant vehicle electrification — don’t get you the deep reductions needed for a Net Zero future. With that said, these policies have some valuable co-benefits and are worth pursuing.
Q. Since transportation is the number one cause for pollution, are they planning to implement an inspection and maintenance program for light duty vehicles to improve air quality and reduce / control vehicle emissions in this region?
A. Some states / areas in the Valley have or had vehicle emissions testing programs to address emissions issues. With this study, we’re exploring what things could happen to get the Valley economy to Net Zero by 2050. A no-regrets action identified is the electrification of all light-duty vehicles. For example, TVA is leading a collaboration with Local Power Companies and regional partners to develop one of the nation’s most comprehensive electric vehicle fast-charging networks. TVA is partnering to provide the infrastructure to support EV growth, and the Valley is also seeing economic growth from automakers focused on EV manufacturing.
Q. Is vehicle electrification the answer for commercial vehicles? Or are we seeing strides in other biofuels or hydrogen fuel?
A. While electrification has emerged as the dominant low-carbon solution for passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, buses, and heavy trucks may require a range of technical solutions, including hydrogen fuel cells and renewable diesel. That said, electrification will still be a big part of the answer, even for commercial vehicles.
Q. Are you already exploring incentives for electric school buses?
A. The TN BEEP (Bus Electrification, Education and Planning) partnership provides no-cost education and assistance services to school district leadership and fleet management personnel in Tennessee. Significant funding is coming through the EPA over the next five years, and this partnership can help any districts that want to “make the switch” to electric or other alternative-fuel school buses. More information can be found here.
Electricity
Q. How does this relate to TVA’s IRP?
A. These efforts are complimentary but distinctly different. Both are looking out to 2050, but the IRP is looking at the electricity sector and how to meet the demand for electricity in an affordable, reliable, and responsible way. The Valley Pathways Study is looking at all sectors of the economy — beyond just the electricity sector — to determine what actions could be taken to reduce emissions Valley-wide and economy-wide to get to a Net Zero economy by 2050.
Q. Did the study assess how much emission reductions could be achieved if TVA did not have the largest planned gas buildout in the nation? How much of an increase in nuclear energy generation do you anticipate to meet the stated net zero goals?
A. The Valley Pathways Study examined how all the economic sectors in the Valley, beyond the electricity sector, can reduce emissions to work toward Net Zero by 2050 while growing the economy. TVA’s IRP is examining how TVA will meet the electricity load needed in the future in the least cost, reliable, and responsible manner. Because the 2024 IRP is underway, this study modeled the electricity sector as a range based on the last IRP from 2019 and can update this when the 2024 IRP is complete.
Q. Does the study assume electricity is already at net zero for transportation? TVA is building gas.
A. No, the study used a range for GHG emissions for the electricity sector based on TVA’s 2019 IRP, given the 2024 IRP is currently underway.
Q. Will TVA’s 2024 IRP consider technology that reduces CO2, NOX, and SOX emissions from existing coal and gas-fired power plants? What CO2 reduction level would be meaningful?
A. TVA employs air-emission reduction equipment at our existing coal-fired plants; more information can be found here.
The 2024 IRP is considering new, clean energy technologies within the 2024 IRP, including the use of carbon capture and sequestration for coal or gas facilities and hydrogen co-firing at natural gas facilities. Concerning the meaningful CO2 reduction levels, TVA has included a study to comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Greenhouse Gas Rules under the Clean Air Act that would require the adoption of either a 90% carbon capture and sequestration system or a 96% hydrogen co-firing blend in the 2030s.
Q. It’s my understanding that TVA does not allow/has low limits on grid-tied microgrids. What is the reasoning behind this/is there an appetite for this to change?
A. Any request for a microgrid interconnection would need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis to determine if the proposed project could be permitted. A microgrid interconnection may be supported by the LPC Generation Flexibility Program or as part of the current Resilience 360° concept if various sizes, thresholds, interconnection, protection, and metering requirements are met.
Q. If the goal is to increase nuclear energy output, do you anticipate an increase in boiling water reactors (like Watts Bar, Sequoyah), or is the goal to add small modular reactors to TVA’s portfolio?
A. We have shared this question with TVA’s IRP team as it is outside the scope of the Valley Pathways Study.
Programs, Policy, and Incentives
Q. Does TN have the potential to create a viable Bio-Economy?
A. Absolutely. In fact, the Oak Ridge National Lab is one the nation’s leaders in researching a sustainable bio-economy. There are many initiatives going on at UTIA and ORNL on this front.
Q. Do you know which Bio-Crops capture the most CO2/Acre/Year?
A. There is ongoing research at the UT Center for Native Grasslands Management into this question.
Q. Many entities, such as small inner city houses of worship, lack information and resources to address energy efficiency and to consider renewables. How can our government and utilities provide coordination and assistance?
A. All non-profits, including faith-based organizations, can apply for and utilize TVA’s EnergyRight energy efficiency incentives, which are offered in partnership with local power companies. To date, over 200 faith-based organizations have taken advantage of these energy-saving incentives. We also have fourteen faith-based institutions participating in our demand response program. We also offer Small Business Uplift in underserved areas to qualified participants. We have eight faith-based organizations that have participated in the program to date. We know these organizations serve as the center of our communities and can greatly benefit from these programs. We’d encourage any house of worship to contact us should they have questions on how to access energy-saving programs from TVA and the LPCs: reach us at 866-233-0450 or TVABusinessIncentive@tva.gov.
Q. How can citizen scientists take an active role, offer their insights, and emerge as environmental stewards in their local communities to coordinate and streamline efforts for robust data gathering, interpretation, and dissemination at a community level?
A. Pathways studies are a great tool for helping regular people take an active role in guiding the economy toward Net Zero. The foundational actions discussed during the webinar are not far-off goals. Every single person in the Valley might not be ready for an EV, a heat pump, and rooftop solar, but any person could evaluate those options for themselves and make choices about housing, workplace, and commuting. They can also get involved at the local level.
Q. How do you foresee this process better informing or influencing the traditional, cultural, or political views and skepticism toward decarbonization among Tennessee’s population?
A. Valley Pathways is designed to find solutions that work for local communities instead of telling local communities which solutions they should adopt. This approach will make the benefits of decarbonizing the valley’s economy more transparent and salient to local communities and policymakers.
Q. How will adopting the IRA affect future greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon footprint in the TN Valley?
A. The Inflation Reduction Act should help to provide funding for many projects and initiatives in the Valley that will reduce Valley GHG emissions.
Q. How do we progress decarbonization when each industry looks to pass the buck to another to avoid cost… Real estate owners are matching their goals to grid greening to avoid costs, and manufacturers are doing the same by waiting for other areas of their supply chain to lower their emissions. How do we envision getting everyone to participate rather than waiting for someone else to do the right thing?
A. Deep decarbonization requires that every sector and industry takes significant action to curb emissions. There is no policy silver bullet to ensure that everyone takes those steps. Still, there are many examples of policies, regulations, and programs successfully engaging with and enabling reductions in various parts of the economy throughout the nation. It will take a playbook of each of these — enacted at the local, regional, state, and national levels — to achieve a Net Zero future.
Q. What conversations are happening with non-metro public officials about expanding the adoption of fleet electrification and other energy-efficient measures?
A. TVA’s Connected Communities program helps all types of communities, such as non-metro, identify areas of opportunity, including energy efficiency, and provides information and support to these communities to develop solutions. Information can be found here. Additionally, TVA is leading a collaboration with Local Power Companies and regional partners to develop one of the nation’s most comprehensive electric vehicle fast-charging networks. Once completed, the Fast Charge Network will include approximately 80 locations, 200 fast chargers, and multiple station owners and site hosts connecting interstates and major highways across TVA’s seven-state service area. While traveling interstates and major highways across the Tennessee Valley, drivers will never be more than 25 miles from a Fast Charge Network charging location. More information on energy efficiency and EVs can be found on the TVA EnergyRight Website.
Q. How can we engage with K12 students to offer exposure to sustainability practices and initiatives and create pathways programs so students are prepared to pursue a post-secondary degree or trade in the clean energy economy?
A. The Valley Pathways Study is a great starting point — it discusses many of the high-level trends and approaches to making our economy cleaner and more sustainable. However, it requires focused development of educational materials and programs to engage with students as suggested here.
Q. Since the study shows the need for reductions of emissions all across the economy, wouldn’t a gradually rising fee on carbon with revenue returned to all Americans create the incentive for the transition, spark innovation, and maximize the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act? See Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act HB 5744.
A. By sharing the preliminary results of this study, we are collecting feedback on actions (both existing and potential) to help reduce emissions across all sectors of the Valley. We will capture this suggestion in our updated report and findings later this year.
Q. There are a multitude of programs that encourage and financially support energy efficiency and renewables. How can our communities maximize and coordinate the benefits of these plans?
A. Visit this website: https://energyright.com/ and contact your local power company. Energy efficiency incentives from TVA EnergyRight® are available to all business account types. Currently, there are incentives available for the following project types: LED lighting, HVAC, refrigeration, thermal storage, and custom incentives for a wide range of energy-saving technologies not covered by the other incentive types. Here’s the link to information on TVA Renewable Energy Programs.
Study Process and Methodology
Q. It is very encouraging to see a leading policy influencer such as the TN Farm Bureau engaged in this process. What measures and collaboration are envisioned by this preliminary plan to effectively engage Tennessee’s local, state, and federal policy leaders in this process?
A. By releasing the Preliminary Findings now and gathering feedback, our goal is to determine the best opportunities for collaboration at the state, local, and federal levels (for example, via CPRG funding and local climate action plans).
Q. One finding is that the region is home to about 3 percent of the U.S. population, which corresponds to 3 percent of emissions in the U.S. Is that just an assumption, or is there actual data to support that statement?
A. Yes, according to the US census, there are about 330 million people living in the US. The Tennessee Valley is home to about 11 million, almost exactly 3%. Similarly, when you look at national emissions, estimated by the US EPA, and the total we computed for the Valley, you get about 3%.
Q. Is there an interest in exploring additional cost-effective solutions?
A. Absolutely! We decided to start with Preliminary Findings so we can get feedback from stakeholders across the Valley and Economic Sectors. Please share your thoughts on additional cost-effective solutions at the UT Baker School Website.
Q. To whom should one present new, cost-effective solutions?
A. We have a feedback form on the UT Baker School Website. You can also contact Jill Welch at the Baker School at jgwelch@utk.edu.
Q. When evaluating methane usage in homes and businesses and methane and propane in transportation, do you factor in upstream emissions from wellheads, refineries, pipelines, and compressors?
A. Yes and no. Methane leaks from infrastructure and equipment in the Valley are accounted for, although separately from combustion emissions. Our inventory does not include fugitive methane emissions from production or equipment that occurs outside of the Valley.
Q. When thinking about GHG reductions resulting from electrification, both for buildings and transportation, do you factor in the reduced emissions from wellheads, refineries, pipelines, and compressors that are decommissioned due to reduced demand for fossil fuels?
A. Yes, to the extent that those emissions occur within the jurisdiction, gas consumption reductions due to electrification result in reductions in gas leaks.
Q. You said that Building and Industry emissions from electricity are captured in the electricity sector, then what are the sources of emissions for these sectors?
A. Emission sources for these sectors are primarily onsite combustion of fossil fuels for heating and/or industrial processes.
Q. Did you have any environmental justice groups involved with the study?
A. Yes, the Valley Pathways Study stakeholder working group includes two representatives from environmental justice-focused organizations.
Q. The analysis appears to apply a 1.42 percent methane leak rate to the consumption of natural gas in the non-energy sector (p. 79). Do the baseline 2019 GHG emissions attributable to the electricity sector and the top-end of the range of projected electricity sector emissions (Fig. 13, p. 42) also include upstream methane emissions? If so, at what rate did the study apply?
A. Upstream emissions from oil and gas production outside the Valley were not included in the Valley’s GHG inventory.
Q. How did you come up with the name of the report “The Valley Pathways Study”?
A. A pathways study is an approach that uses scenario-based analysis to compare possible visions of the future to determine the timing, scale, and effects of achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets. Given that the focus of this pathway study is the Tennessee Valley area, we named it “The Valley Pathways Study.”
Q. How did TVA’s financial input impact the outcome of the study, including the presentation of the findings?
A. TVA’s financial support enabled us to partner with you to conduct this first-of-its-kind study. We’ve worked closely with a diverse stakeholder working group and consultants who are experts in pathways studies, and with this combined expertise, we’ve developed an objective study to help the Valley have conversations about how different sectors can reduce emissions (and are already doing so) while supporting a thriving economy. Together with our stakeholder working group, we elected to start with a presentation of preliminary findings to collect feedback and identify opportunities for action and results across all sectors.